Exxon's conflict of interest--why there will be no Alaska natural gas pipeline.

Governor Sean Parnell and oil company bosses

Exxon and Alaska’s oil and gas

Exxon is Alaska’s bad boy of oil development. Who does not remember the Exxon Valdez spill in Prince William Sound and the aftermath? As a result, Exxon has been cast as the "heavy" in any oil development conspiracies abounding regarding Alaska’s North Slope oil taxes controversy and oil development in general in Alaska. Exxon is the largest oil company in the world and the wealthiest. Exxon is the great white shark of oil development, the rest are remoras or pilot fish who go where the big fish goes and feed off the leavings. In the Book of Five Rings (Go Rin No Sho) by Miyamoto Musashi, a 17^th century Japanese Samurai, he describes five states of military strategy. They are air, fire, water, void and the mountain. Exxon is the mountain. When Exxon speaks, the world oil and gas industry listens.

After the North Slope oil and gas lease sale in 1972 that netted the State of Alaska $900M, the oil companies were not in any hurry to build a pipeline to bring Alaska’s North Slope oil (20,000,000,000 barrels) to market. Then Governor William "Bill" Egan (D) had to take the proverbial bull by the horns. In 1973, after months of wrangling with the oil companies, Egan threatened the oil companies that if they did not announce plans for a pipeline within the week, the State of Alaska was going to build an oil pipeline to Valdez. By the end of the week, the oil companies had announced plans for the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company which would build and operate the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Construction began in April, 1974.

Oil development on the North Slope had been moving forward since the 1960s.

The cost of TAPS, a 48 inch diameter steel casing pipeline 800 miles long was estimated at $900 million. By the end of construction in June, 1977, the cost had risen to $8 billion. The oil companies did have a 30 year tax write off for all expenses associated with the construction and operation of the pipeline. TAPS was allegedly paid for in the first 3 months of operation transporting 2,000,000 barrels of crude per day to Valdez for shipment by U.S. flagged tankers to refineries on the West Coast.

The cost of oil production on the North Slope steadily declined as the cost of construction and infrastructure was recouped over the years. Today, the profit margin for North Slope oil production varies, but using Conoco’s figures 2011 saw a profit of $25 per barrel of oil from North Slope Alaska production. It is this relatively high profit margin for a barrel of oil in relation to other hydrocarbon reservoirs world-wide that is the basis for resistence to any change in the Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share (ACES) oil production tax.

Like AGIA, ACES was a product of then Gov. Sarah Palin’s Administration.

The North Slope profit margin of $25/barrel is much higher than the $1/barrel profit allowed under the Iraqi oil bids by Exxon in 2009.

In the1980s, a proposal was put forth to the oil companies on the North Slope and the State by Yukon Pacific, a consortium of companies including Sempra Energy, attempted to promote a natural gas pipeline project to Valdez. Yukon’s project was a 2 bcf/da-2.5 bcf/da capacity pipeline to terminus LNG port at Valdez. Meeting stiff resistance from Alaska’s governors who had their own pipe dreams, Yukon failed to make any progress after spending hundreds of millions of dollars on permits. Yukon sold most of its permits to AGPA.

Exxon’s position with respect to building a natural gas pipeline to take Alaska North Slope natural gas to market has aways been to settle the Thompson Point lease controversy with the State, then move forward. Or, to do nothing.

In 2006, Exxon had allegedly reached an agreement with Governor Frank Murkowski along with BP and Conoco to move North Slope gas to market. As was revealed when the "contract" was made public, the pipeline was just a pipe dream on the part of the Murkowski Administration. Exxon and the other North Slope Producers promised nothing, other than to study the issue, and, then at some indefinable point in the future to consider building a pipeline.

Exxon stated to its shareholders and to anyone who would listen during Murkowski’s Administration (2003-2006) that it was Exxon’s position that Alaska North Slope gas would begin flowing to market around 2025, given a construction start estimate of 2018-2020.

In 2009, in a suprise move, Exxon joined with AGIA contractor TransCanada to build a natural gas pipeline under AGIA. However, at that time, the focus was still on bringing Alaska natural gas and the valuable gas liquids to the Alberta Hub. It was suspected that Exxon’s involvement was self-serving, both acting to delay any pipeline decision or to redirect Alaska’s gas for Exxon’s benefit in the recovery of oil from Alberta’s tar sands.

It was demonstrated in 2010 during the Bill Walker for Governor campaign that this route was not profitable, and that Alaska’s natural gas would most likely end up in Ft. MacKenzie being used to recover oil from the massive Alberta tar sands desposits. The price of natural gas at the time was about $5/1,000 cf. The cost of transporting the gas from the North Slope to the Alberta Hub was estimated at $5, leaving no profit for Alaska to tax. The ‘unprofitable’ Alaska gas would then have been transported to Alberta freeing Canadian gas to go to market in the U.S.

The October 30, 2012 letter to Governor Sean Parnell declared Exxon, BP, Conoco and TransCanada were willing to study the feasibility of a pipeline to Valdez for conversion to LNG and transport to Asian markets.

Thompson Point is a massive high pressure gas deposit. By October, 2012, Gov. Sean Parnell’s Administration had reached agreement with Exxon regarding Thompson Point. The way was now clear to move forward with development of the Thompson Point gas field. The development of Thompson Point was considered necessary to produce the volume of natural gas to make any North Slope to tidewater natural gas pipeline project viable.

Exxon’s conflict of interest

Exxon’s 2009 move to join with TransCanada was surprising to most. Previously, in 2008, both BP Alaska and Conoco, the other two major North Slope Producers, had announced their own natural gas pipeline project. The Denali gasline project was another 4.5 bcf/da natural gas pipeline from the North Slope taking gas to the Alberta Hub.

What was paradoxical was that with Exxon’s joining with TransCanada in a competing project, all three Producers were now aligned with competing projects. Yet, all three companies’ gas production was necessary to make any natural gas pipeline viable. Therefore, neither AGIA nor Denali were viable. For whatever reason, neither Governor Sean Parenll nor the Legislature ever figured this out or completely ignored the reality of the situation. Governor Parnell continued to mouth platitudes about the viability of AGIA, Open Season and that AGIA would happen. The Legislature, however, took off on its own down an entirely different route.

Exxon’s conflict of interest where AGIA is concerned is in its foreign natural gas commitments.

In 2011, the first exports from Qatar where Exxon had invested $12B in upgrading the Northern Field LNG train to export LNG to the U.S. were delivered to the U.S., and immediately turned around for transport to Asia. "In cooperation with our partner Qatar Petroleum, ExxonMobil used its experience and knowledge of gas marketing around the world to successfully access traditional LNG markets in Asia, such as Japan and Korea, and develop new opportunities in Europe and the United States. ExxonMobil is proud to have played a role in helping Qatar become the world’s largest exporter of LNG." The shale gas revolution had impacted what was to be a 25 year commitment to bring Qatar LNG into the U.S. domestic gas market. That market no longer exists due to the low price for U.S. domestically produced shale gas.

(https://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_production_lng_qatar.aspx)

The August 28, 2012 Platts and the Wall St. Journal reported ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum had formed a joint venture named Golden Pass Products which had applied for a domestic U.S. produced shale gas export permit overseas, including Asia. GPP is seeking to export 740 bcf of natural gas yearly from its LNG terminal at Port Arthur, TX. GPP would spend about $10B in upgrading the LNG train for export. The Port Arthur, TX LNG port would be able to export 2 bcf/da of natural gas.

(http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444375104577595760678718068.html?mg=reno64-wsj; http://blogs.platts.com/2012/08/28/worlds-biggest/; http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/exxon-qatar-petroleum-apply-texas-lng-export-permit )

By contrast, the AGIA or AGPA LNG option to Valdez would ship up to 1,095 bcf of North Slope natural gas to market per year as LNG (3 bcf/da X 365 days).

On October 12, 2012, Bloomberg reported that Exxon, Conoco and TransCanada were estimating the cost of the AGIA natural gas pipeline to Valdez and LNG train to cost at between $45 to $65B and to take up to 10 years to construct.     (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-04/exxon-bp-estimate-alaska-lng-export-project-at-65-billion )  Exxon is developing the Australian Gorgan gas field located 130 kilometers off shore. Exxon owns a 25% share in the development. The Gorgon gas fields have a recoverable reserve of natural gas of an estimated 40 tcf. The market for Gorgon gas is Australia and Asia. In 2009, Exxon signed a deal worth $41B with PetroChina to provide the PRC with LNG. ( http://www.exxonmobil.com/Australia-English/PA/about_what_wa_gorgon.aspx ; http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1_DE7dmIwE8 )

Exxon is negotiating with with CBM Asia Development to partner in the development of coal bed methane gas deposits in the Barito Baswin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
(http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-mobil-cbm-asia-negotiate-133313186.html)

Exxon bought Celtic Exploration, Ltd.’s leases in the Duvernay and Montnay Alberta shale gas formations for $2.86B Canadian. Exxon also has leases in the Horn River British Columbia shale gas formation.
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-30/exxon-favors-gas-over-oil-sands-in-m-a-deals-corporate-canada.html )

　

Does Exxon have a reason to delay any Alaska natural gas development of its North Slope fields, including Thompson Point, given its Pacific basin and Qatar natural gas developments?

Does Exxon have a reason to delay the construction of any natural gas pipeline to move Alaska North Slope gas into a world market where that gas would compete with other foreign sourced gas projects in which Exxon has invested?

Is there any reason why the State of Alaska should not declare a breach of contract under AGIA for conflict of interest on the part of Exxon and TransCanada?

Does TransCanada have a conflict of interest?

 
Through Canada or to Valdez?

When former Governor Sarah Palin took office in 2007, she turned her back upon her campaign’s support of the all-Alaska natural gas pipeline to Valdez, even though she spoke in support of the project and stood with those who supported the project during the campaign. Supporters included former Governor Walter J. Hickel who was an outspoken proponent of the Valdez LNG project and a vocal opponent of Murkowski’s give away to Canada. Undoubtedly, her rising popularity was in no minor part due to her support of the all-Alaska natural gas pipeline to Valdez alternative to then Governor Frank Murkowski’s "contract" with Exxon, Mobil, and BP to build a 4.5bcf/da pipeline through Canada to the Midwest. Palin then beat former Governor Tony Knowles in the General Election in November, becoming the first woman governor of the State of Alaska.

By 2006, it was obvious to most Alaskans that then Gov. Murkowski’s pipeline contract was nothing but a promise by the oil companies to consider building a pipeline after much study and consideration. Exxon spoke of 2025 as the time frame for Alaska North Slope natural gas to move to market. Palin beat Murkowski in the August, 2006 Primary Election. Palin then won the November General election against former Governor Tony Knowles.

The die was cast for the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act.

Upon taking office, Sarah Palin literally reset on her support of the all-Alaska natural gas pipeline. Then Gov. Sarah Palin reappointed Tom Irwin as Dept. of Natural Resources Commissioner. Former Deputy Commissioner Marty Rutherford was also reappointed as Deputy Commissioner DNR. Both had been fired by by Gov. Frank Murkowski for disagreements regarding his actually having a contract with the oil companies to build a pipeline. However, both were firmly convinced that Alaska needed the large diameter 4.5 bcf/day pipeline through Canada to replace oil revenues from the Trans Alaska Pipeline Systems steadily declining volume transported to market. The North Slope oil production was about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) at that time.

Irwin and Rutherford played a major role with legislative input in drafting AGIA. The project initially mirrored Murkowski’s project with one exception. The project did not rely solely upon the oil companies to build a gas pipeline. AGIA called for a competition with the best project as the winner. TransCanada became the sole competitor and was selected as the sole contractor under AGIA. The Alaska Gas Port Authority, a consortium of the cities of Fairbanks, Big Delta, and Valdez, submitted a proposal that was deemed late, incomplete and, therefore, not considered. By the gubernatorial election of 2010, the route was to the Alberta Hub, and not down through Alberta to the Midwest.

Since, AGPA has touted its route and LNG terminal plan as an alternative to AGIA. AGPA’s arguments have largely fell upon deaf ears in both the Paline/Parnell Administrations and the Legislature. Yet, the LNG market was demonstrating a major growth in Asia.

The contradiction in the volume of the planned pipeline projects, both Palin’s and Murkowski’s, was the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission limit of allowable production committed for export to market for North Slope Natural Gas. AGOCC set the amount at about 2-3bcf/da. This figure took into consideration the amount of natural gas necessary to keep the North Slope oil fields pressurized for continued production. Where Murkowski or Palin intended to come up with another 1.5 bcf/da between AGOCC’s limit and the 4.5 bcf/da capacity of their pipelines to Canada has to this day never been fully explained. Nor, has Governor Sean Parnell’s administration bothered to explain why his administration has continued to support TransCanada’s planned 4.5 bcf/da pipeline through Canada under AGIA in the face of the AGOCC’s limit on North Slope natural gas available for export.

In 2007, the Palin Administration announced the award of the AGIA contract to the sole applicant: TransCanada. TransCanada plans incorporated much of former Governor Murkowski’s pipeline. The volume was 4.5 bcf/da, the diameter a >=48 inch casing, the route through Canada to Alberta, then down to the Midwest. Later, TransCanada modifed its plan to use the Alberta Gas Hub distribution system to the U.S., thereby using existing pipelines to distribute gas to the U.S. from Canada. However, the price of the project continued to grow. The estimated cost for construction increased from $18B to over $40B by the gubernatorial election of 2010. From 2007 to today, little or no progress was made on the project. No permits for a route were issued in Canada or Alaska. No firm construction date was ever stated by TransCanada.

In 2008, Conoco and BP announced a competing natural gas pipeline project to Canada called Denali. The plan called for a 4.5 bcf/da natural gas pipeline to export North Slope natural gas to Canada. In May, 2011, Conoco and BP announced that the Denali project was no longer viable. About a week before that announcement, the Alaska president of Conoco’s Alaska operations stated that it was never the intention of Conoco or BP to bring Alaska’s North Slope to market, as they had intended to warehouse the natural gas indefinitely through reinjection back into the wells. Conoco and BP’s Denali proposal was intended to influence the course of Alaska’s legislative and gubernatorial policies pertaining to gas production and marketing of North Slope natural gas. The acts on the part of BP and Conoco amounted to fraud upon the State. The silence on the part of the Parnell Administration and the Legislature was deafening. (http://www.facebook.com/notes/alaskans-for-an-all-alaska-gasline/rebuttal-to-representative-les-garas-alaska-dispatch-opinion-piece-by-larry-wood/219621878075614)

On June 11, 2009, Exxon partnered with TransCanada. This partnership raised questions about the viability of just one producer on the North Slope participating in the project, when it was recognized that all three were necessary to any agreement to sell enough gas to move by pipeline. At that time, BP and Conoco were touting their "competing" Denali gasline project.

Since 1978, the completion of the TAPS oil pipeline, no discernible forward progress has been made towards actual construction of a natural gas pipeline in Alaska. Neither Denali’s nor TransCanada’s heavily publicized Open Seasons had produced any customers for their Alaska projects.

The reality of any natural gas pipeline from the North Slope, was that it took production from all three producers, Exxon, Conoco and BP, to provide sufficient natural gas to make a pipeline project viable. Further, the Point Thompson controversy between Exxon and the State also had to be settled.

The all-Alaska natural gas pipeline project first proposed by Yukon Pacific in the early 80s was for a 2.5 bcf/da pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez to be converted to LNG for export to the U.S. That was basically the same pipeline and volume intended in the plan voted on 2002. AGPA’s pipeline plan today is 3.0 bcf/da. Note that these volumes are within the AGOCC’s volume restrictions for North Slope gas export.

In mid-2011, Governor Sean Parnell finally awakened to the reality of the world LNG market. He suddenly decided that the only viable market for Alaska’s North Slope natural gas was as LNG to Asia. Since, he has tried to move AGIA in that direction. Under AGIA, TransCanada has the option to build a pipeline to a LNG terminus at Valdez for LNG export to market.

In October, 2011, Governor Sean Parnell called for a meeting with the North Slope oil producers to discuss a gasline and the LNG option. On January 6, 2012, Gov. Parnell met with Exxon’s CEO Rex Tillerson, BP Alaska’s CEO Bob Dudley, and Conoco’s Alaska operations CEO Jim Mulva in Anchorage. Gov. Parnell announced that he achieved a promise on the part of the producers to consider ways of getting Alaska’s North Slope gas to market. As promised, in a letter dated March 30, 2012, the oil companies outlined their intent to move forward on a gasline under AGIA. They updated their progress in another letter dated October 3, 2012. However, the progress was basically couched in terms declaring that ‘fiscal certainty’ was required for both a natural gas pipeline and any increase in oil production in Alaska. A position that the oil companies have steadfastly promoted for some time.

The first open season by TransCanada and Exxon ran from April 30-July 30, 2010. The second open season was conducted August 31-September 14, 2011. Both were apparently a bust with insufficient commitments to make any announcements regarding pipeline construction. Under AGIA, TransCanada has five years from the first open season before the project can be declared uneconomical and abandonment would be declared by either the State or TransCanada. (http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/285716809.shtml)

Today, Alaskans are still awaiting news of a natural gas pipeline project that will actually move North Slope natural gas to market.

Does TransCanada have a conflict of interest in its commitment to Kitimat?

Kitimat, British Columbia is the site of a proposed LNG terminal. In 2010, Apache Corp. announced the first agreements regarding LNG commitments with Korea. A 10 year commitment was made by Korea for Canadian LNG exported from Kitimat.

Since, the Kitmat development has expanded to include an additional LNG terminal and oil export capability to be built by a partnership lead by Shell to transport Alberta tar sands oil and LNG to Asia. The oil pipeline will be two parallel pipelines to be built by Enbridge. The pipelines would run 694 miles from Bruderheim, AB to Kitimat, B.C. with an estimated construction cost of $5.5B Canadian. Up to 1,000,000 barrels of crude per day would be transported by the pipelines.

TransCanada’s involvement and conflict of interest lies in its commitment to Shell to build a $4B (Canadian) 434 mile long natural gas pipeline from the B.C. shale gas fields to Kitimat. Kitmat’s LNG terminal will export approximately 1.2 bcf/da of LNG for Asian markets. Shell expects to export up to $10B in Canadian LNG to Asia through TransCanada’s pipeline. Shell is estimating a demand that will see up to 200 LNG tankers a year taking on LNG from Kitimat. The estimated completion date, given the environmental and indigenous lands rights of way issues, is expected by the end of the decade. The pipeline to be built by TransCanada is expected to measure over a meter (>39 inches) in diameter with an initial capacity of 1.7 bcf/da.

(http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/transcanada-wins-4-billion-pipeline-contract/article4231488/ ; http://www.transcanada.com/6054.html; http://www.coastalgaslink.com/ ; http://nwcoastenergynews.com/2012/06/05/2778/transcanada-build-shell-natural-gas-pipeline-kitimat/ )

Shell and its partners, Korean Gas, Mitsubishi, and PetroChina, are planning to build a separate LNG terminal from that planned by Apache Corp. back in 2010.

However, there may be a new wrench in the monkey works of the plans for any west coast LNG terminal, including Valdez.

TransCanada has an exclusive under AGIA. An exclusive normally implies a higher standard of commitment to the grantor than would an ordinary contract without an exclusive.

Given TransCanada’s commitment to Kitimat, should the State of Alaska move to declare breach to end AGIA?

Is there any basis in fact or common sense that would require the State to continue what is clearly a contract that is compromised by a conflict of interest by the grantee of the exclusive under that contract?

The latest cost estimate to construct a 3.0 bcf/da natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez is now estimated by TransCanada and Exxon to be $65B, including the LNG train at Valdez. The last estimate of the cost of construction for the AGIA Alberta Hub pipeline was approximately $40B. Compare the $65B cost of the AGIA LNG option to that the cost of the Kitimat 1.7 bcf/da >39 inch natural gas pipeline to be built by TransCanada under its agreement with Shell Oil. The cost of the Kitimat natural gas pipeline is just $4B Canadian.

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-04/exxon-bp-estimate-alaska-lng-export-project-at-65-billion.html)

Is the $65B price tag of the Alaska natural gas pipeline and LNG train under AGIA just hype to dissuade any protest at further delays?

The election . . .

 

The outcome of the election yesterday is contradictory at the national level.  The incumbent won, but his party lost ground in the House.  The Republicans hold a firm majority there.  The House controls the spending.  In the Senate, nothing really changed, the Democrats still hold the Senate.  The intriguing thing is that our Constitutional Republic, which was established upon Christian and capitalist ethos, is still in the hands of a radical socialist President who has increased our national debt by $16 trillion with deficit spending double that of his Republican predecessor who had a two front war underway, without the Congress passing any budgets for the first four years of his presidency.  This President has now promised increased taxes in the form of a Carbon Tax upon industry, and an unfettered growth in government. 

14 million Americans who voted last election did not vote this election.

Alaska has managed to correct the parity between the parties in the Alaska Senate.  Anchorage Sen. Bettye Davis (D), a long time Alaska pol, lost her seat to Anna Fairclough (R) of Eagle River.  Fairbanks Sen. Joe Paskvan (D) lost his seat.  Anchorage Sen. Hollis French (D) may yet lose his seat to Rep. Bob Bell (R), a race which has French in the lead by 249 votes, with challenged and absentee ballots yet to be counted.  The net result is that Republicans gained a total of three seats in the Senate giving a 13-7 Republican majority.  This majority may end the parity but does not insure the clear majority needed to move forward Governor Sean Parnell's oil tax reduction plan. Kodiak Senator Gary Stevens and Southeast Senator Bert Stedman both sided with the Democrats forming a majority last session that stonewalled any oil and gas legislation having to do with taxes and a gas pipeline.  How they will stand with a Republican majority will soon be demonstrated.  If they continue to support no change in ACES, then the Republican majority will be effectively 11-9.

The Alaska House remains firmly Republican.

What is the potential impact upon Alaska's growth of government and spending of the election?

The portent of this majority would normally bring groans to those who want growth in government.  However, neither House Republicans or Senate Republicans have stood the line with respect to fiscal discipline or restrained the growth of government.  Since Governor Frank Murkowski's budget, succeeding Republican governors have increased the budget far beyond that of previous administrations.  Last year's budget by Governor Sean Parnell exceeded $10B.  This budget was declared unsustainable by many of the same Republicans that passed it in both the House and the Senate.  The number of State employees has increased by an additional 800 employees under the current and previous two Republican administrations. Therefore, will Alaskans see fiscal restraint or any halt to State government growth imposed by a Republican majority in the House and Senate and a Republican governor?

What is the potential for a gas pipeline to bring Alaska's North Slope to market under the new Republican majority in the House and Senate?

Given the passage of CH9 last session, and the introduction of CS9 in the Alaska Senate, it is unlikely that the 500 million cubic feet per day (500mmcf/da) Alaska Stand Alone Pipeline (ASAP) will make much progress this session.  Even were CS9 to be passed by the Senate intact, the estimated start date by Dan Fauske of AHFC is estimated at 2018 or later, if a route is finalized.  Previously, the Legislature appropriated $200M last year to fund the permitting process, but failed to give any provision to actually spend the money.  The Alaska Gasline Development Corporation was created by CH9.  CH9 ended the voter mandated Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority created by the passage of Proposition 3 in 2002.  Without a route, permits, or any real plan in place, the ASAP is still a pipe dream with little chance of success. 

The ASAP is considered to be uneconomic, given the limitation of 500mmcf/da limitation for any instate pipeline under AGIA.   The ASAP has no permits or even a route finalized, even after $214M in appropriations.  The legal hurdles are permits through a national park, a national wildlife preserve, a State park, and permits to cross numerous salmon streams.  It is unlikely, the environmentalists will allow the State to build this pipeline without legal challenges, thereby delaying any start of construction by at least one or two decades.

Some progress towards development of North Slope gas development has occurred with the recent agreement between the State and Exxon over the Point Thompson Unit development.  The Point Thompson Unit is a major gas deposit, the development of which is necessary to any natural gas pipeline plan.

Governor Parnell has recently touted a letter dated 3/1/2012 from the Producers (Exxon, Conoco, and BP) as a willingness to commit to the all-Alaska natural gas pipeline to Valdez.  As a requirement, the Producers made it very clear that fiscal certainty is a requirement for any development of Alaska's North Slope natural gas resources:  

" Serious discussions between our companies have taken place over the past several months, along with the Alaska Pipeline Project (APP) parties who are supporting the AGIA License. We have aligned on a structured, stewardable and transparent approach with the aim to commercialize North Slope natural gas resources within an AGIA framework. As a result of the rapidly evolving global market, large-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from southcentral Alaska will be assessed as an alternative to gas line exports through Alberta. In addition to broadening market access, a south-central Alaska LNG approach could more closely align with in-state energy demand and needs. We are now working together on the gas commercialization project concept selection, which would include an associated timeline and an assessment of major project components including in-state pipeline routes and capacities, global LNG trends, and LNG tidewater site locations, among others.

Commercializing Alaska natural gas resources will not be easy. There are many challenges and

issues that must be resolved, and we cannot do it alone. Unprecedented commitments of

capital for gas development will require competitive and stable fiscal terms with the State of

Alaska first be established. Appropriately structured, stable fiscal arrangements have opened

new opportunities around the world, and will playa pivotal role in making Alaska competitive in

the global market and unlocking the economic potential of North Slope resources."

Very recently, Governor Parnell used the 10/3/2012 letter from the Producers and TransCanada as proof of his progress in achieving a natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez under AGIA to send LNG to market in Asia.  Once again, the Producers make it very clear that before any commitment to build a pipeline occurs, the Producers want ". . . fiscal terms necessary to support the unprecedented commitments required for a project of this scope and magnitude and bring the benefits of North Slope gas development to Alaska." 

Unfortunately, the Governor's commitment to AGIA fails to take into consideration conflicts of interest on the part of TransCanada and the Producers.  Alaska's natural gas sent to Asia as LNG would be in conflict with their existing LNG projects overseas and in Canada.  Exxon, Conoco and BP all have Asian and Australian natural gas development projects that are intended for Asian markets.  Exxon and Conoco are sending their Qatar LNG to market in Asia after the U.S. domestic market was made untenable by the domestic shale gas development.  Permits to export U.S. domestic natural gas have been made to export LNG to Asia. TransCanada has an interest in the Kittimat, BC LNG terminal project with feeder pipelines and its association with Foothills Pipeline Company.  Kittimat has national support and is a national priority.  Alaska's natural gas pipeline to Valdez with natural gas converted to LNG for export would compete with those projects.  Would TransCanada act to compete with Kittimat with a pipeline to Valdez?

To a prudent observer, these conflicts of interest on the part of TransCanada and the Producers would serve as justification for a dissolution by the State of AGIA as the bases. 

Both the ASAP pipeline and AGIA have huge hurdles to overcome on the part of the participants and the State.

What is the portent of the national election to Alaska and Alaskans?

Taxes on business and individuals will go up.  The Bush Tax cuts sunset on 16 January.  They will not be renewed.  An estimated increase in healthcare costs of over $2,000 per individual is anticipated with Obamacare this coming year.  This President has already stated that he will seek a Carbon Tax on industry, which will result in even more U.S. manufacturing going overseas and the loss of even more jobs.  U.S. power production will continue to decline under this President.  President Obama's war on coal production and coal power plants will result in increased cost of power to all Americans. Only Europe has a carbon tax on industry and power production.  Neither the People's Republic of China nor India has such a tax. 

Those who work for government in Alaska are becoming the new elite.  The government worker is now estimated to have wages and benefits exceeding the private sector by 2:1, an average of $80,000 for the federal government worker to $35,000 for the average private sector employee.  The foxes are now in charge of the hen house.

Alaska's offshore oil development benefits only the federal government in terms of royalties.  Alaska will receive taxes and jobs.  However, this President has restricted offshore development, and will certainly be able to act with impunity with respect to further restrictions on domestic energy development through executive orders.  The net result will be increased energy costs Alaskans and Americans, and fewer jobs in the energy development and power generation industries.

The socialism of the federal government will continue to be more intrusive and more aggressive in the intent to impose social engineering upon our schools, military and society in general.  Expect more homosexual lifestyle agenda impositions.  Expect more attempts to limit free speech and the practice of Christianity. 

Our military is about suffer catastrophic losses.  For Alaska this means an reduced military presence, or at least the probability of the military being unable to defend Alaska's continental shelf from Russian attempts to stake claims to Arctic resources.

Alaska's social programs will not suffer, until there is a decline in revenue forcing reductions by the State.  Eventually, federal overspending will result in less money to the State.

The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend check will certainly end.  The Alaska Legislature and this governor cannot see the forest for the trees with respect to oil and gas development.  A declining TAPS is the bellweather for Alaska's economy.  The Legislature and governor will be forced to institute an income tax before the next four years of the President's administration is over.  Alaska will be receiving fewer federal funds.

The economy of Alaska will continue to slow.  People will leave.

In the mean time, we all get to witness and to experience what our grandparents and great grandparents experience during the Great Depression. This recession is a depression that is world-wide in magnitude.

The worst is yet to come.