Sunday, January 31, 2010

AGIA IS A SCREW OVER IF THE PIPELINE GOES TO CANADA!

“TransCanada's inclusion of an LNG option throws a curve into Alberta's hopes to expand its petrochemical industry, which is relying on Alaska gas volumes, especially the liquids contained in the gas stream, for feedstock. According to the Industry Canada website, there are currently insufficient volumes of feedstock to support big new investments in Alberta's petrochemical sector”.—Shaun Polczer, Calgary Herald 1/30/2010

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Alaska+could+bypass+Alberta/2502872/story.html

There it is in black and white from a Canadian source for those of you who still feel that there is any upside to allowing our gas to be transported to Canada.

What does Alaska get out of AGIA to Canada or Denali? SCREWED, THAT’S WHAT!!!!!!!

Any Alaska politician who supports either of the Canadian options should be voted out of office, if not outright impeached!

There is it is, Governor Sean Parnell.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

AGIA is dead but for the politics

Obviously, AGIA is not dead. However, the announcement Friday of a cost increase of an estimated $41B is not conducive to supporting a belief that either AGIA or Denali can be feasible economically. Especially, since the completion date is estimated to be at least 2020.

Given that costs of operations on the North Slope have risen 68% from 2001 to 2009, one can reasonably figure that AGIA’s costs will increase between now and any anticipated start date, say 2015. Since AGIA’s estimated cost was about $15B-$25B, depending upon the source during the Palin v. Murkowski campaign, one can estimate that the completed cost will be somewhere between $75B and $100B by estimated shipment of the first gas in 2020.

Shell announced that it is cutting back its expansion of production of oil from Alberta’s tar sands from a target of 700,000bpd to 225,000bpd for the foreseeable future. Shell will be shifting its emphasis to offshore and onshore exploration, something the company had not emphasized until a recent change in management. Increased cost in the reduction in the expansion of the tar sands recovery was cited as the reason.

It is my belief that AGIA is dead, given the shale gas production Outside and in Canada. Exxon spent $41B buying the company with the largest shale gas holdings in the U.S. One also has to remember that Exxon is committed to a 25 year commitment with Qattar to bring gas to the U.S. The expansion of LNG terminals in the U.S. to 4.5bcf is an interesting number, as that was the planned capacity of big diameter pipelines from Alaska to Canada to the U.S. Any introduction of Alaska gas at that rate would have a depressing effect on the price of natural gas in the region in which it is introduced.

There are those who believe that the President will not allow Alaska to export LNG. That given this belief, the all-Alaska pipeline would not be feasible as Alaska’s gas could not then be exported. This position is belied by the fact that Alaska has been shipping gas from Nikkiski to Japan for the last 40 years. Given this fact, the all-Alaska pipeline would have a market in Asia, primarily in Japan.

The big question now, is what will be the outcome of the AGIA Open Season? Will the producers step up to send gas to Canada? Not likely, for the reasons stated above. However, AGIA was flexible, with a 2.0bcf pipeline to Valdez as the LNG option. That option may see interest, as Asia offers higher prices to Outside markets now uncertain because of shale gas development.

The outcome of the AGIA Open Season will not be known until NOVEMBER, after the general election is over. This plays in the favor of Gov. Sean Parnell. However, if the arguments on the part of Bill Walker regarding the viability and benefits of the all-Alaska pipeline option continue to find favor with Alaskans, Gov. Parnell will need something substantive to show the people that AGIA will produce results before the August Primary.

It is obvious, with the filing of HB312, that Rep. Jay Ramras, Rep. Mike Chennault, Rep. Mark Neumann, Rep. Bill Stoltze, Sen. Lesil McGuire, Sen. Charlie Huggins are hoping to confuse the idea of the Noah Parks Highway 500mcf pipeline sufficiently to get the people to forget that we voted for the all-Alaska route back in 2002 and again in 2006 with the election of Palin/Parnell. These legislators forget that they have ignored the will of the people as egregiously as did governors Murkowski, Palin and Parnell.

The reality here is that although there was no announcement, AGIA’s viability is suspect, due to the doubling of the price tag over less than 4 years. That fact cannot be attractive to potential investors.

The only sure thing is the all-Alaska natural gas pipeline proposed by Bill Walker, and voted upon by Alaskans in two separate elections. That pipeline is permitted, and ready to begin construction. All it needs is a governor to lead the way.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Is ACES the problem?

I think something is being overlooked in this discussion. It is easy to blame taxes. And, one has to give a minor kudos to Parnell who alluded to a potential decrease in the State's royalty taxes. However, there is more here than just taxes.

One of the primary issues is the state of the national economy. There has to be a market to sustain the exploration and development. That the market is in decline due to Obama/Pelosi/Reid's disasterous attempt to rewrite the national economy paradigm. Yeah, GWB had his part in the making of this mess.

That situation definitely has an impact on what happens where with any industry, much less oil and gas.An indicator of the impact of the national economy is Shell's pulling back from oil tar sands recovery expansion from a planned 700,000bpd to 225,000bpd, including putting on hold a potential technology pilot project for insitu recovery. Cost of production is up--and it is here also, a 68% increase in operations costs on the NS from 2001. Therefore, it stands to reason that the oil companies are shifting their focus to portions of world that do not have the regulatory baggage--read nimby/greenie lawsuit--where it is cheaper to operate, even if the return is lower. Exxon and others bid on Iraqi concessions for around $1.40pb.

Shell is going forward with its offshore exploration, something the Parnell Administration seems to be hyping as the new oil rush. State gov't does not get as much directly out that development, but will gain from the jobs and infrastructure in the communities where support bases will be established. Unfortunately, the State is used to a "trickle down" economy where the revenue goes to the State directly and is then distributed to the smaller communities. This type of development, as well as mining will start to put the State back in its place and give new economic power to the communities impacted by the resource development--as it should be instead of this socialist state and colonial economy that is Alaska.

Given the reduction in the tar sands expansion on the part of Shell, it appears that AGIA and Denali may have lost a great deal of their appeal to the Canucks. I doubt those big pipe projects will survive.

This means that ACES is important to maintaining a bloated State gov't, which also feeds bloated local gov'ts. Reducing ACES is going to be a fight, given declining production on the NS.Should ACES be reduced?

Ireland reduced their taxes and boomed economically. Alberta and Saskatchewan played tug of war with the oil industry when Alberta increased its production royalties, and the oil companies bailed for Saskatchewan. Alberta figured the situation out quickly, and made up for lost drilling by lowering the royalty tax. Lowering taxes and royalties cannot be understated in terms of demonstrated positive impact.

Yet, when Parnell in his State of the State suggested that the State's royalty tax may be reduced, a good conservative pundit howled like a striped ape. Why, we just cannot do that!

The reality is that taxes are only one part of the problem in attracting the oil industry back to the State.

Taxes alone will not bring attention back to Alaska, a redress of regulatory impediments must also happen. Marathon Oil did not complain to the Anchorage Chamber of Commerce about taxes, they complained about the regulatory burden in aquiring the permits to drill new exploratory wells.

Calling for a reduction of ACES is only one aspect of what is needed to create a favorable environment for the oil/gas industry to reinvest in Alaska. A reduction in the royalty tax should also be looked at and weighed. However, the primary focus should be on the regulatory impediments. That's where the delays and the real money is lost to the oil companies and any resource development business trying to do business in Alaska.

In the mean time, we need to elect a governor who can move the State forward in the face of declining oil revenues and that candidate is Bill Walker. The all-Alaska pipeline will provide revenue, jobs and infrastructure that would allow the State to reconsider its policies regarding oil and gas development from a position of not having to knee jerk to demands that may be well intended, but might not have the end result desired.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Time to end the Alaska Parnell/Campbell show

Governor Sean Parnell’s new budget sticker price is a shocker. $10.5B. That’s billion with an explosive “B”. The size of this figure should give rise to fear and trepidation into the hearts of every conservative Alaskan out there, and the rest, also. Out of $10.5B, less than point 5 percent builds anything. The rest goes to State government to maintain the social State that Alaska has become while drunk on oil revenues.

When has there been any desire to build anything since Bill Eagan’s second term in the early 1970s? All State government does now is grow, and make excuses for why we cannot do anything anymore.

Worse, why has the State government grown with the Palin/Parnell Administration? As it turns out, Sarah was no conservative. She sold us a load of bilge on that promise, and Parnell has yet to pump out the bilge water that is the growth in State government since Palin/Parnell came to power. The current increase of 8.6% over Palin’s last budget shows that Parnell is no fiscal conservative.

An example of the expansion of State government is Palin/Parnell’s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet. A State executive cabinet that is managed by a federal EPA employee. This management is contrary to the Palin/Parnell stance and rhetoric in Sean’s State of the State address about maintaining and protecting the State’s sovereignty. This cabinet is no longer needed with the admission of climate change being manufactured science to a political end.

This sub-cabinet is also an expansion of government whose function was already covered by DEC, DNR, DMVA on the emergency response side, and other State agencies. Worse, it is administered by Climate Change Strategies, an NGO that promotes the false science of man-made global warming.

Another duplication of effort and money, to the tune of $7 million this year, was the creation of the Pipeline Czar position under Palin and continued by Parnell. We created ANGDA in 2002 by an overwhelming majority to do exactly what Noah and now Bob Swenson were appointed to do. Why is this bureaucracy and expense necessary? What does it do that ANGDA could not do, especially in the face of former Sen. Gene Therriault’s appointment as the governor’s oil and gas advisor? Seems to me that between Therriault and ANGDA, the situation regarding gas pipelines was covered.

DMVA continues an interesting structure that is contrary to our republican tradition in government. The military always has a civilian head. In Alaska, under former Gov. Frank Murkowski, an experiment was tried. The Commissioner DMVA and the position of the Adjutant General were combined. The purpose was to put the two top jobs, military and civilian under one hat. While good in theory, it put the military in control of DMVA, or more particularly, the National Guard Bureau (NGB). The reorganization also resulted in the two top positions being out of State at the same time. With then MG Craig Campbell’s numerous trips to Mongolia, Iraq, and Afghanistan as TAG, DMVA’s remaining leadership was incapable of making any decisions while the Commissioner/TAG was out of town. The Commissioner DMVA should be a civilian, and the TAG should be military, as two separate positions. NGB fuels DMVA. The combination of TAG and Commissioner under one hat gives the feds too much influence. Parnell, as a long time legislator, should have had the moxy to correct this situation. The military should always have civilian leadership. Even the Russians know better.

Under Parnell, we have bigger not better government. We have more money spent with less to show for it. We are in a recession, not a period of growth. There is no pipeline or other major construction on the Parnell plate with an anticipated start date planned. It is time to wipe the slate clean of Palin/Parnell and elect a new governor.

We cannot afford another round of Palin/Parnell.


Note: My choice is Bill Walker. I voted for the all-Alaska pipeline in 2002. I contributed, campaigned and voted for Palin/Parnell because of Sarah's support of the all-Alaska pipeline. I have studied and read extensively on the options, and there is only one option for Alaska: the all-Alaska pipeline, and Bill Walker for Governor: www.billwalkerforgovernor.com Otherwise, why are the Canucks building a LNG export facility at Kittimat, B.C.? Why have there been permits filed to build 2 other export LNG facilities on the West Coast of the U.S.? Shale gas has changed the game. Alaska has to figure it out or lose opportunity, jobs and suffer the continuing rape of our resources.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Parnell's gotta go . . .

Governor Parnell’s new budget sticker price is a shocker. $10.5B. That’s billion with an explosive “B”. The size of this figure should give rise to fear and trepidation into the hearts of every conservative Alaskan out there, and the rest, also. Out of $10.5B, less than point 5 percent builds anything. The rest goes to State government to maintain the social State that Alaska has become while drunk on oil revenues.

When has there been any desire to build anything since Bill Eagan’s second term in the early 1970s? All State government does now is grow, and make excuses for why we cannot do anything anymore.

Worse, why has the State government grown with the Palin/Parnell Administration? As it turns out, Sarah was no conservative. She sold us a load of bilge on that promise, and Parnell has yet to pump out the bilge water that is the growth in State government since Palin/Parnell came to power. The current increase of 8.6% over Palin’s last budget shows that Parnell is no fiscal conservative.

An example of the expansion of State government is Palin/Parnell’s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet. A State executive cabinet that is managed by a federal EPA employee. This management is contrary to the Palin/Parnell stance and rhetoric in Sean’s State of the State address about maintaining and protecting the State’s sovereignty. This cabinet is no longer needed with the admission of climate change being manufactured science to a political end. This sub-cabinet is also an expansion of government whose function was already covered by DEC, DNR, DMVA on the emergency response side, and other State agencies. Worse, it is administered by Climate Change Strategies, an NGO that promotes the false science of man-made global warming.

Another duplication of effort and money, to the tune of $7 million this year, was the creation of the Pipeline Czar position under Palin and continued by Parnell. We created ANGDA in 2002 by an overwhelming majority to do exactly what Noah and now Bob Swenson were appointed to do. Why is this bureaucracy and expense necessary? What does it do that ANGDA could not do, especially in the face of former Sen. Gene Therriault’s appointment as the governor’s oil and gas advisor. Seems to me that between Therriault and ANGDA, the situation regarding gas pipelines was covered.

DMVA continues an interesting structure that is contrary to our republican tradition in government. The military always has a civilian head. In Alaska, under former Gov. Frank Murkowski, an experiment was tried. The Commissioner DMVA and the position of the Adjutant General were combined. The purpose was to put the two top jobs, military and civilian under one hat. While good in theory, it put the military in control of DMVA, or more particularly, the National Guard Bureau (NGB). The reorganization also resulted in the two top positions being out of State at the same time. With then MG Craig Campbell’s numerous trips to Mongolia, Iraq, and Afghanistan as TAG, DMVA’s remaining leadership was incapable of making any decisions while the Commissioner/TAG was out of town. The Commissioner DMVA should be a civilian, and the TAG should be military, as two separate positions. NGB fuels DMVA. The combination of TAG and Commissioner under one hat gives the feds too much influence. Parnell, as a long time legislator, should have had the moxy to correct this situation. The military should always have civilian leadership. Even the Russians know better.

Under Parnell, we have bigger not better government. We have more money spent with less to show for it. We are in a recession, not a period of growth. There is no pipeline or other major construction on the Parnell plate with an anticipated start date planned. It is time to wipe the slate clean of Palin/Parnell and elect a new governor.

Check out the Div. of Elections website to see who is running. Then, go the candidates’ websites and read up on them.

We cannot afford another round of Palin/Parnell.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Walker Responds to Parnell's State of State Address

Follows is Bill Walker, Republican Candidat for governor's response to the Gov's State of the State address. Parnell's address can be viewed at :
http://www.examiner.com/x-2968-Alaska-Gubernatorial-Examiner~y2010m1d21-Gov-Parnells-State-of-the-Union-Address


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

BILL WALKER RESPONDS TO STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS

January 20, 2010

Today Bill Walker released the following statement regarding Governor Parnell’s state of the state address.

“With his support of AGIA, Governor Parnell continues to ignore the economic realities of a changing world. While he recognizes that bringing Alaska gas to market is the biggest opportunity ahead of Alaska, he has committed to stay the course in a process that everyone knows will fail.

As an Alaskan, I am deeply troubled by the Governor’s willingness to place our fragile future in the hands of outside interests and foreign governments. If the State does not take control of the process and construct an all-Alaska pipeline to Valdez there will not be a gas pipeline.

The Governor’s “permit and they will come approach” has repeatedly failed to secure an Alaska natural gas pipeline. Both TransCanada predecessors in the 1980’s for a line through Canada, and the Yukon Pacific Corporation in the 1990’s for an All-Alaska project, expended hundred of millions of dollars securing final regulatory approvals hoping to attract producer participation with that strategy. It failed then and will fail now.

Further, since AGIA passed, the U. S. Department of Energy has estimated that the United States has sufficient gas for the next 100 plus years due to recent proven shale gas reserves. Yet the Governor continues to tell the people of Alaska that there is demand for our gas in the lower-48, even going as far as to suggest we will soon become American’s next great ‘gas province.’ Let me be clear – his misrepresentation of the facts about shale gas is beyond out of touch, it is out of line.

Planned gas import terminals in western Canada have reversed course and are now being developed as gas export terminals (Kitimat, B.C.). Billions are being spent to ramp up production all across North America in the newest energy gold rush, and Exxon Mobil has even acquired the second largest shale gas company for $41 billion. Companies, states and countries have reacted around the globe, yet we continue to pursue the AGIA process knowing it charts a course into Canada that leads nowhere.

As governor I will keep Alaska’s jobs, gas and future within Alaska, develop a pipeline on our timeline and under our control, and will sell Alaska gas to world markets. Our Gas, Our jobs, Our Future.”